Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 16.646818 19.404632 22.428807 25.984614 30.044189 34.527313 39.845939
2024-10-13 12.565325 16.438517 21.133815 27.211507 34.833504 44.035900 55.943535
2024-10-20 9.480668 13.617478 19.051625 26.638505 36.869826 50.089152 68.343713
2024-10-27 7.211165 11.232140 16.891533 25.316133 37.387821 53.881559 77.896791
2024-11-03 6.414766 10.682414 17.037881 27.002116 41.989278 63.391408 95.873066
2024-11-10 5.916824 10.452925 17.551361 29.193407 47.450322 74.522974 117.078850
2024-11-17 5.108778 9.567669 16.892832 29.444712 49.935947 81.436125 132.629587
2024-11-24 4.333657 8.589454 15.916834 29.010006 51.216007 86.529541 145.737490
2024-12-01 3.632370 7.610942 14.781301 28.123236 51.593249 90.140012 156.701280
2024-12-08 3.169441 6.991486 14.175396 28.045534 53.265490 95.905131 171.499544
2024-12-15 2.813970 6.518026 13.761867 28.240227 55.389097 102.537473 188.176010
2024-12-22 2.304114 5.633941 12.436788 26.558190 53.937750 102.882806 194.128620
2024-12-29 2.094557 5.383331 12.376409 27.400376 57.421438 112.498986 217.588542
2025-01-05 1.951436 5.263471 12.582265 28.831126 62.242582 125.060127 247.561307
2025-01-12 1.665004 4.746563 11.861384 28.255751 63.068781 130.338010 264.743101
2025-01-19 1.368807 4.137583 10.831681 26.866112 62.067633 132.029714 275.330006
2025-01-26 1.313431 4.143670 11.218954 28.646309 67.828788 147.279809 312.906522
2025-02-02 1.289363 4.230326 11.809898 30.958041 74.945237 165.759605 358.082447
2025-02-09 1.157753 3.983957 11.541217 31.223127 77.614610 175.469026 386.613836
2025-02-16 1.009422 3.653461 11.003364 30.764675 78.606274 181.784423 408.751602
2025-02-23 0.862221 3.289532 10.313869 29.829339 78.387101 185.503482 425.787580
2025-03-02 0.766936 3.069425 9.978769 29.747375 80.149997 193.587612 452.487813
2025-03-09 0.692719 2.902162 9.764859 29.952746 82.618013 203.391798 483.512622